Friday, January 11, 2008
My realistic and somewhat verifiable expectations for the duration of the Writer's Strike.
I have been running the scenarios over and over in my head as to what may happen, or what will bring an end to this tedious and harmful labor dispute. I came up with this theory last month, and the more people I run it by, the more I am convinced that I may be right... unfortunately.
I don't expect this strike to be over till August or September for the following reasons listed in hypothetical chronological order
1. The studios plan to allow force majeure clauses to be enacted. Dec. -Jan
2. Once so many contracts are in need of renegotiation it would be in their best interest to skip a costly pilot season altogether, and cancel the Network's shitty programming choices and "dead weight" programs. Feb-Mar
3. By skipping pilot season they can use the growing the desperation within the industry to try and put more pressure on the writers, and try to use the Oscars as a way to turn popular support against the WGA. Mar-Apr
4. It is then in the best interest of the writers not to give in, but rather have the added clout of a DGA/ SAG strike. Apr-Jun
5. It will optimistically take the Studios 2 months to negotiate with 3 striking unions. July-Aug..Sept?
The only caveat is the seeming willingness of the AMPTP to negotiate with the DGA as if THEY were the voice of reason, and the WGA's demands were lunatic. Considering that all three Unions are basically negotiating the same issues, the possibility of a DGA deal underlies the basic personality conflicts that have escalated this stupid stupid strike. What the hell? If there's enough money to go around, spread the friggin wealth, and let's get back to work!
*** The opinions expressed in this blog do not represent the opinions of my employers or my clients, so don't take it out on them.